Democratic Narrow Majority

Democrats convert the current polling edge into a bare Senate majority, most likely by holding Georgia with Jon Ossoff and flipping enough Republican-held seats to reach 51. Sherrod Brown's Ohio strength and Roy Cooper's appeal in North Carolina become the central path to control, while Maine remains a secondary pickup opportunity.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.