Constraints Reshape Spending

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The next phase of the AI investment cycle is dictated less by management choice and more by power availability, permitting and chip delivery schedules. This can either reduce near-term cash burn through delays or extend the capex cycle through government-backed infrastructure support.

What it moves

Utilities+2.0%
Technology+1.1%
Industrials+0.2%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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