Possible scenario
Rate Fear Resumes
27% Chance
The negative Goldman signal is interpreted alongside elevated rate-hike odds and Treasury yields above 5.3%. Investors sell duration-sensitive equities and credit as the market prices a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve path.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Fed policy rate Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.