Possible scenario
Orderly Risk Reduction
38% Chance
Investors treat Goldman Sachs' negative risk indicator as confirmation to trim exposure rather than a signal of systemic stress. Equity weakness continues, but selling is concentrated in high-beta technology, cyclicals and credit-sensitive financials.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Finance -1.2%
- Utilities +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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