Possible scenario
Formal Party Switch
25% Chance
Fetterman accepts Trump's invitation and formally joins the Republican Party or the Senate Republican caucus. This would be a high-profile political shift, especially because Fetterman was elected in 2022 as a Democrat after defeating Trump-backed Mehmet Oz.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Finance +0.5%
- Healthcare -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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