Possible scenario
Independent Caucus Deal
20% Chance
Fetterman chooses a middle path by leaving the Democratic label without fully becoming a Republican. This would let him preserve his anti-party brand while negotiating committee treatment and issue-by-issue voting flexibility.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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