Possible scenario
Stays Democratic
40% Chance
Fetterman declines Trump's public invitation and reiterates that he will not leave the Democratic Party. This is the most likely outcome because he has recently denied plans to quit the party, and a formal switch would create major political costs in Pennsylvania.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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