Possible scenario
Managed Oil Normalization
45% Chance
The U.S. treats the Maduro capture as a window to normalize limited Venezuelan oil flows under strict licensing, prioritizing Gulf Coast heavy-crude supply and lower fuel-price pressure. A transitional authority in Caracas cooperates enough with PDVSA, Chevron, and U.S. refiners to keep cargoes moving despite weak infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- CVX+3.5%
- +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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