Possible scenario
PDVSA Bottlenecks Persist
25% Chance
The import surge proves difficult to sustain because PDVSA’s fields, upgraders, ports, and blending logistics remain badly impaired. U.S. refiners still want Venezuelan heavy crude, but operational decay prevents a durable return to pre-sanctions volumes.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Tickers
- CVX-2.2%
- VLO-1.7%
- -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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