Possible scenario
Backlash Disrupts Exports
18% Chance
Maduro loyalists, security factions, or local armed groups challenge the post-capture order and target oil infrastructure as a source of leverage. The U.S. and a transitional Caracas authority preserve the broad policy goal of higher exports, but physical and political risk interrupt cargo flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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