Possible scenario
Houthi Campaign Expands
25% Chance
The Houthis use the airport disruption to demonstrate continued long-range strike capability against Saudi targets. Saudi Arabia responds with tighter air-defense measures and likely retaliatory action, but the conflict remains short of a direct regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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