Possible scenario
Diplomacy Calms Tensions
20% Chance
Oman and UN channels revive contacts between Riyadh and the Houthis to prevent the airport attacks from derailing prior cease-fire diplomacy. Both sides have incentives to limit escalation because repeated airport disruptions carry high economic and political costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Energy -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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