Possible scenario
Rhetoric Stays Political
42% Chance
Trump continues attacking Sen. Elissa Slotkin publicly, but the White House and Justice Department avoid converting the threat into a formal criminal process. This is the most likely path because prosecuting a sitting senator for political speech would face major legal, institutional and electoral obstacles.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.