Possible scenario
Justice Department Moves
28% Chance
The Justice Department or a politically aligned prosecutor takes some formal step to examine Slotkin’s comments and prior statements urging resistance to illegal orders. Even a preliminary inquiry would intensify rule-of-law concerns, though charges would remain difficult to sustain.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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