Possible scenario
Institutions Push Back
18% Chance
Congressional Democrats, some Republicans, former prosecutors and federal judges respond by framing Trump’s demand as retaliation against protected speech. This scenario limits escalation by raising the political and legal cost of any prosecution.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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