Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
30% Chance
Both sides treat energy infrastructure as legitimate leverage after the breakdown of the informal restraint on refinery and power-grid attacks. Ukraine continues hitting Russian export logistics, while Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian electricity and gas systems before winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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