Possible scenario
Energy Truce Revived
20% Chance
The strike creates enough pressure on Russian export revenues and Ukrainian power security to revive talks over a narrow energy-infrastructure moratorium. Turkey, the UN, or Gulf intermediaries could facilitate a limited arrangement without addressing the broader war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.