Possible scenario
Contained Export Disruption
40% Chance
The strike causes temporary disruption at Russia's Baltic export infrastructure but does not permanently disable the port. Moscow prioritizes repairs and air-defense reinforcement around Primorsk while crude flows are partially redirected through Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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