Possible scenario
Partial Deal Emerges
27% Chance
Washington, Beijing, and Tokyo reach a limited arrangement that allows some restricted exports to resume without formally ending China's leverage. This outcome is plausible because China may prefer extracting concessions on chip controls while avoiding lasting damage to regional manufacturing networks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.6%
- Industrials +1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.