Possible scenario
Managed Standoff Persists
38% Chance
China maintains rare-earth and export-license pressure on Japanese firms while avoiding a broader rupture with Washington. This is the most likely path because Beijing has already rejected Trump's request but still has incentives to keep the dispute controlled.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Industrials -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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