Possible scenario
Allied Countermeasures Build
20% Chance
The U.S., Japan, and European partners respond with coordinated industrial-policy and export-control measures rather than immediate de-escalation. This path is likely if Xi's rebuff convinces allies that China is using critical minerals as coercive leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.7%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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