Possible scenario
Lula Narrowly Prevails
35% Chance
The bloc of former heads of state helps Flávio Bolsonaro consolidate the right-wing vote but does not overcome Lula's incumbency, union networks, and center-left alliances. The Supreme Electoral Court validates the result while Bolsonaro allies debate how far to push post-election challenges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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