Possible scenario
Lula Rebuilds Lead
23% Chance
The foreign-backed bloc produces a media cycle for Flávio Bolsonaro but also lets Lula frame the runoff as a defense of Brazilian sovereignty and democratic institutions. Center-right governors and business figures become more willing to distance themselves from Flávio's promise to purge the Supreme Court.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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