Possible scenario
Flávio Wins Runoff
30% Chance
The former leaders' bloc gives Flávio Bolsonaro international validation and helps nationalize the runoff as a referendum on Lula, the Supreme Court, and Jair Bolsonaro's conviction. A win would immediately raise the question of whether he governs as a market-friendly conservative or pursues confrontation with the judiciary.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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