Possible scenario
Protocol Snub Contained
45% Chance
Bessent's absence is treated as a diplomatic and scheduling decision rather than a break with Thailand or the IMF. U.S. Treasury staff still participate in the IMF-World Bank meetings, and Thai officials avoid linking the absence to the near-final U.S.-Thailand trade terms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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