Possible scenario
IMF Clash Escalates
25% Chance
The absence becomes part of a broader U.S. campaign to pressure the IMF over governance, lending conditions, or China-related influence. This scenario is plausible because Bessent had already criticized the IMF earlier in 2025, and skipping the host event creates room for a policy signal.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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