Possible scenario
Trade Deal Insulated
20% Chance
Washington and Bangkok separate the IMF optics from the bilateral trade file. Given the July 2025 trade deal and the October 2026 report that final terms were near, negotiators have incentives to keep the agreement from being derailed by Bessent's absence.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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