Possible scenario
Temporary Reopening Only
25% Chance
The reopening proves to be a one-off humanitarian and logistics window, not a durable restoration of Pakistan-Iran overland trade. Islamabad keeps pressure on Tehran-aligned commerce because U.S. sanctions risk still outweighs the value of normal border traffic.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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