Possible scenario
Sanctions Pressure Intensifies
15% Chance
The United States objects to renewed Iran-linked transit activity and presses Pakistan to prove that sanctioned goods and payments are not moving through Taftan. Pakistan responds by tightening bank, customs, and logistics compliance, which keeps the border politically sensitive even if it remains partly open.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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