Managed Border Normalization

Pakistan treats the reopening as a controlled logistics measure rather than a policy reversal, allowing stranded cargo to move while customs and security checks remain elevated. This is the most likely outcome because Islamabad has an incentive to prevent a humanitarian and commercial backlog without openly defying U.S. pressure on Iranian trade.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.