Possible scenario
Managed EU Supply
45% Chance
Beijing continues separating the EU from its dispute with Washington, keeping rare-earth oxides and magnet shipments broadly available to European buyers. China uses the EU channel to preserve export revenue, divide Western policy responses, and retain leverage over future Brussels trade decisions.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Tickers
- MP-1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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