Possible scenario
Conditional Chinese Leverage
25% Chance
China keeps shipments flowing but makes clear that stable access depends on Brussels moderating tariffs, anti-subsidy cases, and technology restrictions. The EU avoids an immediate supply shock but faces a more transactional relationship over critical minerals.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- NEO+1.2%
- MP-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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