Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Omani mediation and UN diplomacy convert the mobilization order into bargaining leverage rather than the start of a major offensive. Both the Presidential Leadership Council and the Houthis pause further escalation to preserve channels with Riyadh.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.