Possible scenario
Contained Frontline Escalation
40% Chance
The mobilizations translate into heavier positioning and artillery exchanges on existing fronts, but neither side commits to a decisive nationwide offensive. Saudi Arabia and Oman keep back-channel contacts open, limiting direct cross-border escalation despite Houthi rhetoric.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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