Possible scenario
Visible GOP Fracture
23% Chance
Trump's camp and Paxton-aligned Republicans could treat Abbott's absence as a slight, creating a public intraparty dispute. This would be politically meaningful in Texas but still a limited market event because no immediate policy change follows from the rally optics.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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