Possible scenario
Democrats Exploit Opening
18% Chance
Democrats could use the skipped rally to argue that Abbott is politically boxed in between Trump loyalists and suburban moderates. This is less likely than a managed GOP response, but Abbott's tight lead makes even small message advantages relevant.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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