Possible scenario
Managed Campaign Distance
42% Chance
Abbott's absence is most likely a tactical choice rather than a full break with Trump. With Abbott defending a tight lead after spending nearly $70 million, his campaign may prefer emphasizing Texas-specific border and economic themes while Trump focuses on Ken Paxton and national midterm turnout.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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