Possible scenario
Lula Regains Ground
25% Chance
Lula's campaign responds to the bond-market rally by emphasizing fiscal discipline and attacking Bolsonaro's political risks. If polls tighten, part of the yield move reverses as investors reassess whether the election really implies a policy shift.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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