Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Rally Extends
45% Chance
Investors treat Flávio Bolsonaro's first-round lead as a credible signal of a more market-friendly policy mix after the runoff. The drop in two-year yields extends as traders price earlier Selic cuts, tighter fiscal targets and less intervention in state-linked companies.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Utilities +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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