Possible scenario
Institutional Risk Rises
18% Chance
The campaign turns contentious as both sides challenge advertising, digital messaging and vote-count procedures before the runoff. Investors remain constructive on Bolsonaro's market agenda but demand a higher risk premium for institutional uncertainty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Utilities -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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