Possible scenario
Managed Dollar Corridor
50% Chance
Washington and Baghdad keep physical dollar shipments flowing while tightening documentation, end-user checks, and electronic reporting. This is the most likely path because both sides want to avoid Iraqi liquidity stress while limiting leakage to Iran and Iran-backed militias.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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