Possible scenario
Compliance Friction Persists
25% Chance
Dollar shipments continue, but the process becomes slower and more restrictive as U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials demand better proof that cash is not reaching sanctioned Iranian entities. Iraq avoids a systemic banking shock, though private banks and importers face delays.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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