Possible scenario
Enforcement Escalation
15% Chance
U.S. officials conclude that parts of Iraq's banking and exchange network are still moving dollars to Iran or Iran-backed militias. Washington keeps some cash shipments in place for stability but uses sanctions, bank restrictions, or tighter Fed release conditions to force compliance.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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