Possible scenario
Sustained Supply Disruption
30% Chance
The attack causes a material loss of Saudi production or processing capacity for several days to weeks. The market focuses on spare capacity credibility, insurance risk, and the possibility that Houthi drones or missiles can repeatedly reach Saudi energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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