Possible scenario
Damage Contained Quickly
35% Chance
Saudi Aramco contains the fire at the Ghawar field and prevents a meaningful export disruption. This is plausible because Saudi facilities have redundancy, emergency response capacity, and strong incentives to reassure customers after the Abqaiq precedent.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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