Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh, facing renewed vulnerability at core oil infrastructure, reopens indirect talks through Oman and the UN despite earlier rejecting Houthi territorial demands. This path becomes more likely if Saudi leaders judge that a tactical pause is cheaper than repeated attacks on Aramco assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
- Consumer Services +2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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