Possible scenario
Convoys Contain Risk
35% Chance
The most likely near-term outcome is that the US Fifth Fleet, UK Maritime Component Command, and regional navies expand escorts without direct strikes on Iranian assets. LNG flows remain delayed and insurance costs stay elevated, but the physical loss rate falls enough to prevent a panic squeeze beyond current levels.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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