Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Escalates
20% Chance
A more dangerous escalation remains a substantial risk after repeated October tanker strikes. A successful attack on an LNG carrier, a temporary halt in escorted transits, or a direct Iran-US naval exchange would move the market from a risk premium to a supply-crisis framework.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.1%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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