Possible scenario
Attacks Grind On
30% Chance
Iran-linked forces continue intermittent missile and drone attacks, but avoid a full closure of Hormuz or direct confrontation with US naval forces. The LNG market stays tight as buyers pay up for cargo certainty and shipping companies selectively refuse Gulf voyages.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
- Utilities -2.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.