Possible scenario
Planalto Contains Fallout
27% Chance
The presidency and allied officials argue that the logs show routine access rather than evidence of a funding conspiracy. Investigators continue reviewing the claim, but the immediate political damage is limited and markets treat the story as a contained legal matter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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